China perceives several major threats from India, driven by historical tensions, territorial disputes, geopolitical competition, and divergent strategic interests. These threats shape China’s foreign policy and military posture in the region, influencing its approach to diplomacy, security, and economic relations with India.
Territorial Disputes
The most prominent threat perceived by China from India stems from unresolved territorial disputes, particularly over the regions of Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh. The 1962 Sino-Indian War solidified China’s control over Aksai Chin, while India claims this region as part of its territory. Similarly, Arunachal Pradesh, which India administers, is claimed by China as part of South Tibet. These disputes heighten military tensions along the border, leading to occasional skirmishes and confrontations.
Strategic Encirclement
China perceives India’s strategic partnerships with countries like the United States, Japan, Australia, and Vietnam as a form of encirclement aimed at containing China’s rise. India’s participation in initiatives such as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) and its deepening defense cooperation with the U.S. raise concerns in Beijing about potential collaboration to counter Chinese influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
Security Competition
India’s military modernization, including the enhancement of its naval capabilities, deployment of advanced weapon systems, and expansion of its defense infrastructure along the border, is viewed by China as a security challenge. China’s military strategy is partly shaped by the need to maintain a strategic advantage over India, leading to the development of asymmetrical capabilities such as ballistic missiles, cyber warfare capabilities, and a robust anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy in the region.
Economic Rivalry
China perceives India’s economic growth and increasing regional influence as a challenge to its own economic interests. India’s growing market potential, expanding infrastructure development, and participation in regional trade agreements pose both economic opportunities and challenges for China. Competition in sectors such as technology, manufacturing, and infrastructure development amplifies economic rivalry between the two countries.
Regional Influence
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its ambitious infrastructure projects in South Asia, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), are viewed with suspicion by India due to concerns about China’s expanding influence in the region. India perceives these initiatives as attempts by China to gain strategic leverage and encroach upon its traditional sphere of influence in South Asia.
Tibetan Issue
India’s historical support for the Tibetan government-in-exile and the presence of the Dalai Lama in India are sensitive issues for China. China perceives India’s stance on Tibet as interference in its internal affairs and a potential tool for destabilization. Tensions over the Dalai Lama’s activities and India’s hosting of Tibetan refugees contribute to mutual mistrust between the two countries.
Water Security
China’s control over the headwaters of major transboundary rivers, including the Brahmaputra, raises concerns in India about water security. China’s construction of dams and diversion projects on these rivers could potentially affect water flow downstream, impacting India’s agricultural and hydroelectric interests.
In conclusion, China perceives multiple threats from India, including territorial disputes, strategic competition, economic rivalry, regional influence, the Tibetan issue, and water security concerns. These perceptions shape China’s approach to bilateral relations with India, influencing its foreign policy, military strategy, and economic engagements in the region. Managing these complex dynamics requires both countries to engage in constructive dialogue, confidence-building measures, and cooperative frameworks to address mutual concerns and build a stable and peaceful relationship.
